UAE to Trump Administration: “You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY and other currencies.” -WSJ, just now
- Yes, and the UAE gladly took all the Iranian money and sheltered its citizens, all the while Iran was building a nuke. Either the UAE is the enemy of Iran, or it’s not. Either the UAE wants Iran to have a nuke, or it doesn’t. Or, as so often happens in the Middle East, the UAE is playing both sides against the middle. Bob
- So if I were selling oil, and I was running short on US dollars, wouldn’t I prefer to receive US dollars for said oil? It could, but on the surface what you posted makes zero sense. – Chris
- Unintended consequence of low/no USD oil shipment unless you know someone who knows someone. Gonna sell to peeps who can take delivery. So now place muzzle on foot, safety off. You know the rest. Ouch. – Peter62
- Luke — exactly right on the UAE ultimatum. This is classic blowback turning into real-time adaptation. While the double-blockade stays hot (Hormuz commercial traffic near zero post-gunboats + today’s confirmed TOUSKA boarding by USS Spruance), the system is already flowing to the next least-resistance paths: Energy reroute: Massive VLCC armada heading to the US Gulf of Mexico (empty ships loading American crude) + widespread Cape reroutes bypassing Hormuz/Suez. US LNG just smashed records at 11.7 million metric tons in March, stepping in as the reliable swing supply. Overland mirror: China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) surged in Q1 2026 — 5,460 trips (+29% YoY) carrying 546,000 TEUs (+22% YoY), with the Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor up 150%. New routing tweaks and fixed schedules, all framed around supply-chain resilience. The UAE isn’t jumping to CNY on a whim — they’re asking Washington for swap lines first as a backstop. If dollar liquidity tightens from the disruption (higher insurance, rerouting costs, squeezed revenues), yuan-settled oil/gas with China becomes the pragmatic Plan B. China will take the barrels and provide the liquidity in return. This is the machine under stress seeking every controllable vector: secure Western Hemisphere energy, hardened overland corridors, and diversified settlement. Compute/energy as the real strategic currency is forcing these pivots faster than legacy petrodollar logic can keep up. – HK
I’m starting to think our “alliances” only run one way – Peter St Onge (post at X )
